MOSAIC publishes Analysis of 2022 Census in Serbia

Population Census Analysis for the Presevo Valley: Insights from the 2022 Census

The Democratic Institute MOSAIC has published a comprehensive analysis based on the 2022 population census conducted in the Republic of Serbia. This report provides an in-depth examination of the demographic data for the Presevo Valley, focusing on the three municipalities of Presevo, Bujanovac, and Medvedja. These municipalities represent a significant portion of the Albanian community in Serbia.

As part of this study, MOSAIC carefully reviewed the official data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia in 2023. The analysis covers various aspects, including territorial divisions, settlements, population numbers, population density, and representation in local assemblies.

Demographic Overview and Ethnic Composition

The first chapter of the report delves into the territorial layout of the municipalities, detailing the number of inhabitants and the population density across Presevo Valley. The following section highlights the ethnic distribution within these municipalities, shedding light on the variations and percentages of different ethnic groups.

A significant focus point is the comparison between the current data and past censuses, especially regarding the ethnic composition of the Presevo Valley. The report underscores discrepancies that have arisen, notably with the Albanian community's participation—or lack thereof—in past censuses.

Economic Comparisons: Presevo Valley vs. Serbia

The third chapter provides a comparative analysis of the average income in the Presevo Valley municipalities versus the national average in Serbia. The findings reveal a substantial income gap, highlighting economic disparities between this region and the rest of the country.

Historical Context and Population Discrepancies

As one of the constituent communities in the former SFRY (Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia), Albanians lived throughout the federation's territories. After its dissolution, the Albanian population became concentrated primarily in the three municipalities of Presevo, Bujanovac, and Medvedja, with smaller numbers residing elsewhere in Serbia.

In the 2002 Population Census, the Albanian community participated under the condition that Albanians displaced to Kosovo after the 2001 conflict would also be counted. This condition was ultimately ignored by Serbian authorities, leading to frustration within the community. According to official data, 61,647 Albanians lived in Serbia during the 2002 census, with over 92% residing in the Presevo Valley.

The 2011 census was boycotted by the majority of the Albanian population due to discriminatory practices, leaving an information gap. However, the community chose to participate in the 2022 census. Preliminary data collected by local Albanian enumerators suggested that approximately 100,000 residents live in the Presevo Valley. However, the official census results released by Serbian authorities reported only 80,925 residents, highlighting a discrepancy that remains unresolved.

A Deeper Look at the 2022 Census Data

According to the official 2022 census data, the Presevo Valley has 57,795 Albanians, while the total number of Albanians in Serbia is recorded as 61,687. This indicates that 93.7% of Serbia's Albanian community resides in the Presevo Valley. The region faces significant challenges, being one of the most underdeveloped areas in Serbia, with high unemployment and low foreign direct investment.

The economic struggles in the region are further evidenced by the average income, which stands at €470.3 in the three municipalities, compared to a national average of approximately €640. Moreover, the region covers an area of 1,248 km², with a relatively low population density of 65 inhabitants per km².

Addressing Migration and Demographic Challenges

One of the key challenges faced by the Presevo Valley is migration, particularly among young people. Many have relocated to urban areas or emigrated, with a notable influx of youth moving to Germany. This migration trend is contributing to demographic decline, particularly in peripheral settlements, which has had a detrimental effect on local economic development.

The region's demographic concerns are compounded by the fact that the average age in these municipalities is around 40.8 years, reflecting a gradual aging of the population. This issue is further addressed in the final chapter, which compares the average age of residents in the Presevo Valley to the national figures for Serbia.